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Propose, Don't Judge: An Anytime-Valid Referee for LLM Agents That Mine Investment Factors

Bo Qu, Mingguang Chen, Licheng Wang · 2026 · arXiv

DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2609.27051 · open-access PDF

Chinese

语言模型代理人现在运行了整个定量因素研究:他们提出投资因素,反测试他们,选择幸存者并退休他们. 我们询问代理人应该保留哪些工作。我们的答案是由自我进化管理的:代理人可以提议,和一个冻结的统计裁判官,代理人不能触摸必须判断。裁判员只在提交后透露的市场结果上评分每个候选人,通过投注,因此其假发现保证在任何提议政策的每一个停机时间保持。

Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.

Abstract

Language-model agents now run the whole of quantitative factor research: they propose investment factors, backtest them, select the survivors and retire them. We ask which of those jobs an agent should keep. Our answer is governed self-evolution: the agent may propose, and a frozen statistical referee that the agent cannot touch must judge. The referee scores each candidate only on market outcomes revealed after submission, by betting, so its false-discovery guarantee holds at every stopping time for any proposal policy. We cross three proposers (a script, a bandit and a language model) with t

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