Philipp D. Dubach · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.06412 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF
يمكن أن تتغير تكاليف التداول المحددة حتى عند حدوث تكاليف تقييم مرتفعة. نحن نؤكد الجانب من طرازات التداول العامة Polymarket ضد طرازات التقييم في كل طرازات التقييم. على عشرين يومًا مختارة بين أبريل وحتى أغسطس 2026، تتراوح بين كل من جنود التقييم، 92.1% إلى 100.0% من طرازات التقييم تتوافق مع طرازات التقييم المحددة، مع اتفاقية التقييم المحددة على جميع 24,5 مليون زوج متوافق. تقييم الطرازات يجعله ضروريًا: تقييم الطرازات: تقييم الطرازات والطرازات تقييم الطرازات تقييم الطرازات. تقييم الطرازات المحددة على الطرازات المحددة قبل التقييم ي
Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.
Trade-sign errors can change measured trading costs even when classification accuracy is high. We validate the side of Polymarket's public trade prints against the taker leg of each print's on-chain settlement. On twelve selected days between April and August 2026, spanning both exchange generations, 92.1% to 100.0% of prints match a settled taker leg, with exact side and token agreement on all 24.5 million matched pairs. Mint-and-merge settlement makes that taker leg essential: pooling maker and taker legs changes the measured buy share. Signing the full cached tape before settlement selection yields 16.6 million prints signed by every rule; equal-day balanced accuracy is 0.942 for Lee-Ready, 0.768 for the tick test and 0.670 for retrospective bulk volume classification. On 16.4 million identical eligible fills, Lee-Ready raises effective spread by 0.429 cents per share under equal-fill weights; its realised-spread difference is -0.209 cents. Under share-volume weights, taker five-minute midpoint impact is 0.689 cents, while tick and bulk classifications give -0.374 and -0.119 cents. That aggregate sign reversal disappears when tied print rows are excluded. Distortion depends on error-weighted signed outcomes, sample selection and weighting. Receipt-time ordering and unobserved future-quote age limit these delivered-quote accounting quantities; they do not identify causal impact or private information. Supporting venue and collector analyses provide descriptive diagnostics.
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Topics: Pooling, Settlement (finance), Sample (material), Aggregate (composite), Econometrics, Statistics
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