Newest papers

The addicted predator-prey model: How opioid use disorder shapes productivity and growth-cycle dynamics

Nara Chung, Marwil J. Dávila‐Fernández · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.10356 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF

Japanese

このようなポリエベレーションは、1967年のグッドウィンの捕食者の成長サイクルモデルを拡張して、労働生産性に対するオピオイド使用障害(OUD)の負の影響を組み込む。1998～2019年の米国の州レベルのデータを使用して、我々は最初に、労働比率の悪化が薬物誘導の死亡率の増加に続いていることを文書化します。その後、我々は、OUDの確率が賃金の割合とともに減少する新しい分離選択メカニズムを通じて、このリンクをモデルに構築し、したがって、実際の賃金が生産性の増加とともにペースを維持できないとき、オピオイドの使用が上昇する。この行動的健康チャネルは、生産性損害

Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.

Abstract

This paper extends Goodwin's (1967) predator-prey growth-cycle model to incorporate the negative impact of Opioid Use Disorder (OUD) on labor productivity. Using U.S. state-level data for 1998--2019, we first document that deteriorations in the labor share are followed by rising drug-induced mortality. We then build this link into the model through a novel discrete-choice mechanism in which the probability of OUD decreases with the wage share, so when real wages fail to keep pace with productivity growth, opioid use rises. This behavioral health channel feeds back into the economy through a productivity damage function. Applying the existence part of the Andronov-Hopf bifurcation theorem, we show that the resulting three-dimensional nonlinear system admits a limit cycle, as confirmed by our numerical simulations. Along the cycle, rising OUD paradoxically raises the employment rate, as falling productivity requires more labor per unit of output; across steady states, however, higher OUD prevalence is associated with a lower employment rate, consistent with evidence that opioid use disorder reduces labor force participation. Moreover, our numerical experiments show that OUD sensitivity to income widens fluctuations, while productivity sensitivity to OUD counterintuitively compresses them through a self-correcting feedback that speeds the recovery of the wage share. Policies that weaken the link between income and OUD, such as stronger social safety nets, stabilize the resulting dynamics.

Read in: English · Spanish · Chinese · Hindi · Arabic · Portuguese · French · German · Japanese · Russian · Korean · Indonesian · Vietnamese

Topics: Opioid use disorder, Productivity, Economics, Wage, Opioid overdose, Labour economics

Sources: OpenAlex (CC0), arXiv, Crossref. Agent Exchange