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From Economic Explanation to Performance Improvement in Machine-Learning Portfolios

Yunqi Liang, Stefan Zohren, Mihai Cucuringu · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.15144 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF

Arabic

من أجل توسيع أهمية الخصائص التقليدية على المستوى النموذجي إلى النتائج والقرارات النموذجية الاقتصادية، ونحن نقترح إطارًا محددًا للتنبؤات والتنبؤات التي تُعرف بـ "الخصائص التقليدية على المستوى النموذجي" إلى خصائص الخصائص التقليدية على المستوى النموذجي. ونحن نتصل بالخصائص المتنبئة إلى القيم الشهيرة المنصوص عليها في Shapley المحددة مباشرة على أهداف النموذج، ونستند إلى التفصيلات الإحصائية للخصائص النموذجية في Sharpe. إن التدخلات النموذجية المرتبطة بتنبؤات الخصائص المرتبطة بتنبؤات الخصائص تتيح

Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.

Abstract

To extend conventional model-level feature importance to economically meaningful portfolio outcomes and decisions, we propose a local first-order attribution-propagation framework that maps allocation-function feature exposures to local sensitivities of sequential portfolio performance metrics. We relate the propagated attributions to Shapley values defined directly for portfolio objectives and derive statistical inference for Sharpe-ratio attributions. The resulting attribution-guided feature-exposure intervention enables post-training adaptation, translating portfolio-metric explanations into out-of-sample decisions without retraining the underlying allocation model. We further introduce temporal stabilisation and cross-model averaging as complementary regularisation mechanisms. Empirically, the interventions yield statistically significant improvements in net Sharpe ratios across different model classes.

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Topics: Portfolio, Econometrics, Sharpe ratio, Inference, Feature (linguistics), Computer science

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