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Pricing the Unprovable: Ambiguity, Turnstile Runs, and the Verifiability Discount in Crypto Protocols

Doohwi Cha, Hanhee Kim, Hyeonjun Yeo, Minsuk Sung, Minjae Lee, 손승한, Donghwa Seo, Juyeong Lee · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.21540 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF

Japanese

プライバシーを維持する単一の曝露プロトコルは、過去の脆弱性が事前に利用されたかどうかを確立することなく、盗難が報告されず、総合供給が保護された場合でも、過去の脆弱性を修復することができます。私たちは、このギャップから潜在的な価値の削減を検証性の割引と呼びます。ターンスタイルモデルは、早期の撤回が可能な欠陥を残されたチェーン上の流れに転換させることができ、なぜ信頼できる証拠が暴露が増加するにつれてより有益になるのかを示しています。我々は、VDISCを導入します。我々は、予測された方向に従う:市場は、修理、曝露価値、公的証拠、回収、およびプールプール流れを

Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.

Abstract

Privacy-preserving protocols can repair a vulnerability without establishing whether it was exploited beforehand, even when no theft is reported and aggregate supply is protected. We call the potential value reduction from this gap the verifiability discount. A turnstile model shows how early withdrawal can shift a possible shortfall to remaining holders and why credible evidence can become more valuable as exposure grows. We introduce VDISC, a reproducible framework that records reported loss, exposed value, public evidence, returns, and pool flows separately. It combines Orchard's staged disclosures with reconstructed on-chain flows, earlier Zcash cases, and a 40-event security panel. Orchard follows the predicted direction: market responses were muted after repair and supply assurance, while the largest negative return and aggregate shielded-pool net outflow aligned with the acknowledgment that past abuse could not be ruled out. These patterns are directional, not causal. Across events, market-cap-normalized reported loss and unresolved exposure overlap among the 38 events with a public loss figure (Pearson 0.86, Spearman 0.56), partly because exposure is often coded from the loss itself, so returns alone cannot distinguish reported loss from unresolved history. The findings motivate three candidate design priorities: produce privacy-compatible evidence about past states, limit the state exposed by a single flaw, and disclose residual uncertainty explicitly.

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Topics: Turnstile, Computer security, Economics, Computer science, Aggregate (composite), Business

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