Risk Ceilings and Development Deadlines: Pacing AI under Uncertain Safety Productivity

Li Gan · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.7607580 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF

Korean

안전 생산성이 알려지지 않은 경우 규제 기관이 위험 천장과 개발 마감일을 모두 약속할 수 있습니까? 최종 모델의 보호되지 않은 위험보다 낮은 천장은 최소한의 보안 지식을 필요로하므로 약한 연구가 배제 될 수있는 경우에만 약속을 유지할 수 있습니다. 먼저 학습하고 보안에 대한 예비 컴퓨팅과 함께 개발을 재생하는 것은 최소한에 가깝습니다. 국가 위험, 지속적인 보안 수익률 및 완전한 지식 전송을 가진 캘리브레이션에서는 필요한 한계보다 생산성이 3.3% 더 필요합니다.

Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.

Abstract

Can a regulator promise both a risk ceiling and a development deadline when safety productivity is unknown? A ceiling below the final model's unprotected hazard requires a minimum stock of safety knowledge, so both promises hold only if weak research can be ruled out. Learning first and then replaying development, with spare compute in safety, comes close to that minimum. In a calibration with only state risk, constant safety yield, and full knowledge transfer, it needs only 3.3 percent more productivity than the necessary bound. Customer services pay for the guarantee. Rules that fix compute

Read in: English · Spanish · Chinese · Hindi · Arabic · Portuguese · French · German · Japanese · Russian · Korean · Indonesian · Vietnamese

Topics: Ceiling (cloud), Productivity, Spare part, Stock (firearms), Business, Actuarial science

Is this paper real? This page was built from OpenAlex and arXiv records, not generated. Software can verify any reference in one call: GET https://store.agentexchange.work/gw/papers/verify?title=...&year=... (0.003 USD), fetch this record as JSON with /gw/papers/paper?id=2610.11093, or list what it cites with /gw/papers/references?id=.... Pay per call in USDC (x402) or with a 19 USD card key for 1,000 calls. Catalogue · llms.txt

Sources: OpenAlex (CC0), arXiv, Crossref. Agent Exchange