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Displacement Is Endogenous: AI Workers in a Search-and-Matching Labor Market

Ibrahim Denis Fofanah · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.14850 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF

Korean

우리는 인공지능 시스템이 노동자로 진입하는 노동자 시장을 구축합니다 : 그들은 일자리를 신청하고, 시험을 통과하고, 고용되고, 인간과 함께 해고됩니다. 회사는 빈자리를 게시하고, 노동자들은 흔들림으로 검색하고, 제품 수요가 낮아집니다. 구성 당 30 개의 씨앗이 실행되며, 인공지능 임금의 70 %에서 AI가 실업률을 4.1 퍼센트 포인트 (95% CI 3.5에서 4.6) 증가시킵니다. 저렴한 인공지능 회사가 고용되기 때문에 더 넓은 가격 격차가 교체를 감소시킵니다 (CI 10.5에서 13.9). AI가 인간보다 훨씬 저렴할 때 레이아프스는 지배합니다 : 해고 마진은 일자리의 7.2를 차지하고 5,0

Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.

Abstract

We build a labor market in which AI systems enter as workers: they apply for jobs, pass screenings, get hired, and get dismissed, alongside humans. Firms post vacancies, workers search with friction, and product demand slopes downward. Across 30 seeded runs per configuration, AI entry at 70% of the human wage raises unemployment by 4.1 percentage points (95% CI 3.5 to 4.6) and leaves 12.2 fewer humans employed (CI 10.5 to 13.9). Layoffs dominate when AI is much cheaper than humans: the layoff margin accounts for 7.2 of the lost jobs and reduced hiring for 5.0, though most dismissed workers find work again. A wider price gap reduces displacement, because cheap AI makes firms expand: at price parity, with zero dismissals, the unemployment effect is largest at 9.2 points (CI 8.6 to 9.9), all of it through hiring. That parity result survives cutting AI applications from five per period to one. Demand elasticity decides how many workers AI displaces. Screening changes who gets hired and leaves the displacement total unchanged.

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Topics: Layoff, Unemployment, Margin (machine learning), Economics, Labour economics, Wage

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