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Displacement Is Endogenous: AI Workers in a Search-and-Matching Labor Market

Ibrahim Denis Fofanah · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.14850 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF

Chinese

我们建立一个劳动力市场,人工智能系统作为工人进入:他们申请工作,通过筛选,被雇用,并被解雇,与人类一起。公司发布空缺,工人以摩擦搜索,产品需求向下倾斜。在每个配置中,30种种子运行,人工智能的入口为70%的人工工资增加了失业率,4.1个百分点(95% CI 3.5 到 4.6),并留下12.2个更少的人工(CI 10.5 到 13.9)的岗位占主导地位,当人工智能比人类要便宜得多:解雇额占失业率的7.2个岗位,减少就业率为 5.0,尽管大多数被解雇的工人再次找到工作。更广泛的价格差距减少了迁移,因为廉价人工智能公司使得扩张:在价格平等,与零解雇,

Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.

Abstract

We build a labor market in which AI systems enter as workers: they apply for jobs, pass screenings, get hired, and get dismissed, alongside humans. Firms post vacancies, workers search with friction, and product demand slopes downward. Across 30 seeded runs per configuration, AI entry at 70% of the human wage raises unemployment by 4.1 percentage points (95% CI 3.5 to 4.6) and leaves 12.2 fewer humans employed (CI 10.5 to 13.9). Layoffs dominate when AI is much cheaper than humans: the layoff margin accounts for 7.2 of the lost jobs and reduced hiring for 5.0, though most dismissed workers find work again. A wider price gap reduces displacement, because cheap AI makes firms expand: at price parity, with zero dismissals, the unemployment effect is largest at 9.2 points (CI 8.6 to 9.9), all of it through hiring. That parity result survives cutting AI applications from five per period to one. Demand elasticity decides how many workers AI displaces. Screening changes who gets hired and leaves the displacement total unchanged.

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Topics: Layoff, Unemployment, Margin (machine learning), Economics, Labour economics, Wage

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