Speculative Imbalance Positions by Non-Physical Traders: Impacts on Electricity System Balancing in Great Britain

Joseph Cary, Thomas Morstyn · 2026 · arXiv

DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2610.28075 · open-access PDF

Abstract

The electricity system in Great Britain (GB) allows participants to deliberately produce or consume a different volume to their traded position and has incentivised this practice with a single imbalance price since 2015. In particular, non-physical traders (NPTs) often take an open position to imbalance without any intention to produce or consume power. However, new government proposals could restrict this practice due to concerns over supply-demand balancing feasibility and costs. This article presents the first empirical analysis of speculative imbalance positioning (SIP) by NPTs in the GB e

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