cs.AI · cs.CL · cs.LG · cs.CV · cs.CR · cs.SE · stat.ML · q-fin.TR · q-fin.ST · econ.GN · q-bio.QM · physics.soc-ph · math.OC · cs.RO · cs.HC
Batisse Manhardt, Ja-Nae Duane · 2026-10-20
Digital nudges have become a prominent area of research in human-centered interaction, yet little is known about how they interact when deployed together. This study examines the individual and combined effects of anchoring, salience, and social proof digital nudges on stopping b…
R. Vestrelli, A. Fronzetti Colladon · 2026-10-20
Changes in occupational task content may have different economic implications depending on whether the tasks gained or lost are occupation-specific or already widespread across the economy. Existing measures of occupational task change largely abstract from this distinction, trea…
Joseph Cary, Thomas Morstyn · 2026-10-20
The electricity system in Great Britain (GB) allows participants to deliberately produce or consume a different volume to their traded position and has incentivised this practice with a single imbalance price since 2015. In particular, non-physical traders (NPTs) often take an op…
Seung Jin Cho, Jun Yeong Lee · 2026-10-20
In 2024 the Korea Baseball Organization became the first top-tier league to replace the home-plate umpires ball-strike judgment with an automated system. Using over a million pitches from 2021 to 2026, we separate the change into the removal of human discretion and the imposition…
Geoff Boeing, Jiyoon Kim, Daniele Simon-Thompson, Jaehyun Ha, Ruoyu Chen · 2026-10-19
Urban park accessibility shapes mental health, physical well-being, and community cohesion. Measuring it is thus central to urban and landscape planning. Although researchers have debated the impacts of different accessibility measures on analysis results, scant attention has bee…
Beichen Lu, Honglin Bao, Qi Huang, Qingguo Meng, James A. Evans · 2026-10-19
Progress in artificial intelligence is widely assumed to scale with effort: more researchers, papers and investment should accelerate discovery. Theories of technological growth instead locate the difficulty of discovery in the space of ideas. Here we show that neither scale nor …
Xinyu Fu, Shulong Luo, Narayan Ramasubbu, Peng Shen, Xincheng Wang and others · 2026-10-19
As AI voice agents get deployed in high-volume contact centers, firms can route low-intent leads to AI and allocate high-intent leads to human workers. Drawing on sequential search theory, we posit that AI-induced task allocation reshapes work, enriching opportunities facing huma…
Christoph Riedl, Rory Smead · 2026-10-17
The structure and dynamics of complex networks are intimately linked. Despite immense progress in statistically characterizing these systems, a generalized mechanistic framework explaining why specific mesoscale structures emerge remains elusive. Here we introduce the game-graph …
Sebastian Sartor, Robert Seamans, Neil Thompson · 2026-10-16
Exposure indices that map technical capabilities onto occupational abilities have become a standard tool for anticipating how AI may reshape work, but existing measures either cover software AI or proxy robotics through patents and installation data that reflect the industrial ro…
Jhordan Silveira de Borba, Sebastian Gonçalves, Celia Anteneodo · 2026-10-16
In previous studies, using agent-based simulations of a model of a capitalist economy proposed by Ian Wright, we showed that inequality in both wealth and income distributions is largely governed by a single key parameter: the ratio between average wealth per capita and the mean …
Munkhbayar Byambadash, Tumendelger Lkhagvasuren, Enkhbat Rentsen · 2026-10-16
Input-output analysis with linear programming is widely used in the planning of national economies. However, linear programming attains its optimum at a vertex of the feasible set, and a small deviation of the optimal plan in some direction violates a constraint. So far, little a…
Amirhossein Zohrehvand, Aldona Kapačinskaitė · 2026-10-16
Artificial intelligence (AI) makes it easier than ever to produce research outputs. The pressing question is how researchers should organize their work with this technology. The question is not new: software engineering and security research have long studied how teams of people …
Antonis Ballis, Christos Ioannidis · 2026-10-16
Weak-form efficiency implies symmetry restrictions on the Markov chain governing movement across the cryptocurrency capitalisation distribution. We test them on the full listed population: 8,970 assets, 690 weekly cross-sections, 2013 to 2026, with entry, exit and survival observ…
Hexiao Liu, Lijian Lu, Mingzheng Wang · 2026-10-16
Digital marketplaces increasingly earn revenue from transaction commissions and seller-facing data services. Sellers may purchase data to increase revenue or avoid competing with an informed rival. We examine how consumer disclosure rights shape these motives and the platform's i…
Jan Morgan, Anchi Xia · 2026-10-16
We provide a theory of optimal trade sanctions with three strategic players: Home (sanctioner), Foreign (target), and Bystander. Bystander may act unilaterally or ally with either party subject to a participation constraint. We derive three novel results. First, members of a coal…
Martin Bichler, Philip Hierhager, Kassian Köck, Fabian Pieroth · 2026-10-15
Repeated Bertrand competition is a stringent benchmark for algorithmic pricing: in homogeneous-goods markets, standard learning procedures typically select the stage-game Nash outcome with prices near marginal cost. We show that LLM pricing agents can escape this benchmark, depen…
Gergely Csáji, Dávid Csercsik · 2026-10-14
We study the route-set allocation problem between end nodes in capacity-constrained flow networks with transfer costs. We introduce an origin--destination (OD) bidding language, in which a participant bids for bounded conic combinations of inlet--outlet--quantity licences and the…
Martin Feldkircher, Bernd Prostmaier, Paul Hofmarcher, Pierre Siklos · 2026-10-14
Social scientists routinely convert text into covariates like topic shares, ideal points or sentiment scores, and insert them into statistical models of interest. This two-step design is convenient, but it is rarely guided by theory: little tells the analyst which text-based cova…
Nicholas Uhorchak, Ruben Proano, Sandra Eksioglu, Burak Eksioglu · 2026-10-13
Pediatric vaccine procurement for low- and lower-middle-income countries (LICs and LMICs) requires long-term coordination across heterogeneous vaccine markets, competing stakeholder objectives, and uncertain demand, yet tenders are currently scheduled as a series of independent r…
John Conlon, Peter Schwardmann · 2026-10-12
We study two hypotheses for how a human role in production could persist despite growing AI capabilities. Humans might have a durable advantage in taste, designing better products even as AI agents automate routine tasks, or consumers might intrinsically prefer that humans have a…
Pawel Robert Smolinski, Siddharth Saridevi · 2026-10-12
We study whether stock disclosures by recognizable investors generate abnormal market reactions beyond the reactions produced by comparable but non-recognizable managers. We define the Buffett effect as the incremental abnormal return to a disclosed new position that is attributa…
Difang Huang, Shumin Yu, Fadong Chen, Weihua Zhou · 2026-10-10
Generative AI makes options cheap and shifts the bottleneck of creative work from generating options to screening them. We argue that AI's value depends on whether its options arrive before or after the team's screen. In our model, early options compete for a place in the portfol…
Koki Okumura · 2026-10-10
Innovation changes welfare by improving technology and reallocating inputs across producers with different markups. When producers choose markups optimally, an innovator's own output and price adjustments have no private value at the margin, so reallocation affects its profit onl…
Ibrahim Denis Fofanah · 2026-10-10
We build a labor market in which AI systems enter as workers: they apply for jobs, pass screenings, get hired, and get dismissed, alongside humans. Firms post vacancies, workers search with friction, and product demand slopes downward. Across 30 seeded runs per configuration, AI …
Minyu Shen, Xiaowen Bi, Weihua Gu, Zhandong Xu, Yuezhong Wu and others · 2026-10-10
Bus operations are inherently unstable---buses initially dispatched at equal headways will inevitably end up bunching up. This issue exacerbates passenger waiting times, creates load imbalances between buses, and undermines service reliability. Reinforcement learning (RL) has pro…
Jonghoon Park, R. Alan Seals · 2026-10-09
Pregnancy can disrupt schooling before infant care begins. We use monthly histories from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to study school interruptions during pregnancy and after childbirth and whether students later return to school or earn a diploma or GED. We joi…
Li Gan · 2026-10-09
Who should give up compute for AI safety research: customers or capability research? Safety paid for by customers delays no capability. Safety paid for by research slows the frontier, which gives knowledge more time to accumulate but postpones what a finished frontier provides. I…
Afonso Rodrigues · 2026-10-09
Aggregate linear demand systems can be micro-founded by a population of heterogeneous consumers making discrete choices. They can also be extended to incorporate income effects. I prove these results and show how to structurally estimate this class of models using only market-lev…
Andrew J. Peterson · 2026-10-09
We examine business models that could support frontier AI companies' valuations and the public evidence of plans to earn income beyond selling model access. Reverse cash-flow calculations for OpenAI and Anthropic yield combined year-ten revenue requirements of \$2.79 trillion or …
Omar El Housni, Marouane Ibn Brahim · 2026-10-09
AI shopping assistants increasingly influence which products consumers consider. We study retail assortment planning under AI mediation, where a retailer chooses a catalog, an AI intermediary forms a customer-facing shortlist, and the customer chooses from that shortlist accordin…
Arka P. Bandyopadhyay · 2026-10-09
I study how intermediary liquidity affects mortgage resolution using 1.9 million Ginnie Mae buyout options from 2019 to 2022. When funding markets froze in 2020, nonbank issuers repurchased far fewer delinquent loans than depositories servicing loans in the same pools and, within…
Jarrod Burgh, Emerson Melo, Matthew Shum · 2026-10-08
Mental accounting is usually explained by self-control, and two-stage budgeting by separable preferences. We propose a third explanation based on sellers' market power. A consumer who commits to spend a fixed number of dollars in a category has unit-elastic demand, so a seller in…
Shyamal Chowdhury, Prabal Roy Chowdhury, Joeri Smits · 2026-10-08
After decades of microfinance expansion and despite charging higher interest rates, moneylenders continue to exist alongside microfinance institutions (MFIs). We develop a dynamic model with ex post moral hazard, in which borrowers use MFI loans for production and can rely on mon…
Vinzenz Pyka, André Rieder · 2026-10-08
Employers in Germany argue that collective agreements restrict their flexibility concerning working hours. Using data from the IAB Establishment Panel for the years 2008 to 2024, we investigate working-time adjustments after exit from collective bargaining. We find that exit is a…
Jun Yeong Lee · 2026-10-08
Evidence that pricing algorithms collude comes from markets in which every seller runs the same algorithm. We ask what happens when they do not. Four language models from four providers, each at its cheapest tier, price in a four-firm logit Bertrand market without communication, …
Li Gan · 2026-10-08
Can a regulator promise both a risk ceiling and a development deadline when safety productivity is unknown? A ceiling below the final model's unprotected hazard requires a minimum stock of safety knowledge, so both promises hold only if weak research can be ruled out. Learning fi…
Daniel Robert Kling Alexander, Catherine Louise Kling · 2026-10-07
Many of the questions now put to large language models have no correct answer to score against: what a policy is worth, which option a user should choose, how to weigh competing values. Stated-preference economics has faced this problem for decades. It judges survey responses wit…
Nara Chung, Marwil Davila Fernandez · 2026-10-07
This paper extends Goodwin's (1967) predator-prey growth-cycle model to incorporate the negative impact of Opioid Use Disorder (OUD) on labor productivity. Using U.S. state-level data for 1998--2019, we first document that deteriorations in the labor share are followed by rising …
Julien Monardo, Mogens Fosgerau, André de Palma · 2026-10-07
We introduce a class of demand models for market-level data. The models can be estimated by linear instrumental variables regression while accommodating substitution patterns far richer than the logit and nested logit models they embed. They are built from closed-form inverse mar…
Ran Abramitzky, Jacob Conway, Roy Mill, Luke C. D. Stein · 2026-10-07
We study differences in economic outcomes by perceived skin tone among African Americans using full-count U.S. decennial census data from the late-19th and early-20th centuries. Comparing children coded as "Black" or "Mulatto" by census enumerators and linking these children acro…
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