Market Efficiency in a Changing Asset Population: Mobility, Entry, and Survival over Cryptocurrency's Full History

Antonis Ballis, Christos Ioannidis · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.23283 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF

Abstract

Weak-form efficiency implies symmetry restrictions on the Markov chain governing movement across the cryptocurrency capitalisation distribution. We test them on the full listed population: 8,970 assets, 690 weekly cross-sections, 2013 to 2026, with entry, exit and survival observed rather than inferred. Symmetry is rejected in every era, but the asymmetry falls by seventy percent, and what converged is entry-driven compositional churn rather than coins' own valuations. The bottom decile earns 27.5% per week on paper and nothing among assets that trade, on capacity of $293,000. Compensation for neglect exists precisely where trading does not.

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Topics: Decile, Asset (computer security), Economics, Markov chain, Market capitalization, Compensation (psychology)

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