Is the Business of Frontier AI Companies Selling Tokens? Value Capture and Equity Prices

Andrew Jerel Peterson · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.7592221 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF

German

Wir untersuchen Geschäftsmodelle, die die Bewertungen von grenzüberschreitenden KI-Unternehmen unterstützen könnten, und öffentliche Beweise für Pläne, Einnahmen über den Verkaufsmodellzugang hinaus zu erzielen. Umgekehrte Cash-Flow-Berechnungen für OpenAI und Anthropic-Erträge kombinierten jährliche Einnahmenanforderungen von 2,79 Billionen US-Dollar oder 733 Milliarden US-Dollar, abhängig von finanziellen Annahmen.

Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.

Abstract

We examine business models that could support frontier AI companies' valuations and the public evidence of plans to earn income beyond selling model access. Reverse cash-flow calculations for OpenAI and Anthropic yield combined year-ten revenue requirements of \$2.79 trillion or \$733 billion, depending on financial assumptions. Public documents identify proposed payments and ownership interests that could supply additional income, such as through partnerships on pharmaceuticals, robotics, or materials science. We discuss how these arrangements relate to firm boundaries and value capture.

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Topics: Frontier, Revenue, Equity (law), Yield (engineering), Payment, Business

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