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Is the Business of Frontier AI Companies Selling Tokens? Value Capture and Equity Prices

Andrew Jerel Peterson · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.7592221 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF

French

Nous examinons les modèles d'affaires qui pourraient soutenir les évaluations des entreprises de l'IA frontalières et les preuves publiques des plans de gagner des revenus au-delà de l'accès au modèle de vente. Les calculs de flux de trésorerie inversés pour OpenAI et le rendement anthropique ont combiné des exigences de revenus annuels de 2,79 milliards de dollars ou 733 milliards de dollars, selon les hypothèses financières.

Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.

Abstract

We examine business models that could support frontier AI companies' valuations and the public evidence of plans to earn income beyond selling model access. Reverse cash-flow calculations for OpenAI and Anthropic yield combined year-ten revenue requirements of \$2.79 trillion or \$733 billion, depending on financial assumptions. Public documents identify proposed payments and ownership interests that could supply additional income, such as through partnerships on pharmaceuticals, robotics, or materials science. We discuss how these arrangements relate to firm boundaries and value capture.

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Topics: Frontier, Revenue, Equity (law), Yield (engineering), Payment, Business

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