¿Quién gana cuando el Umpire es una máquina? evidencia del sistema automatizado de golpe de pelota (ABS) / Who Gains When the Umpire Is a Machine? Evidence from the Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS) (2026) (Spanish)

En 2024 la Organización de Béisbol de Corea se convirtió en la primera liga de nivel superior para reemplazar el juicio de gol con un sistema automatizado. Usando más de un millón de tiros de 2021 a 2026, separamos el cambio en la eliminación de la discreción humana y la imposición de una nueva geometría de zona. La máquina eliminó las llamadas dependientes de la cuenta, el valor del marco del catcher y una pequeña ventaja para los bates de estrellas, alquileres que valen solo unos pocos tiros por temporada de jugador. Debido a que las máquinas escalan la zona con altura y tratan cada partido de la misma manera, redistribuye los tiros hacia los bates altos y a través de los tiros, pero pocos tiros están expuestos a estos cambios, y sus efectos sobre los resultados de apari

Abstract

In 2024 the Korea Baseball Organization became the first top-tier league to replace the home-plate umpires ball-strike judgment with an automated system. Using over a million pitches from 2021 to 2026, we separate the change into the removal of human discretion and the imposition of a new zone geometry. The machine eliminated count-dependent calls, the value of catcher framing and a small advantage for star batters, rents worth only a few runs per player-season. Because the machines zone scales with height and treats every matchup alike, it redistributed strikes toward tall batters and across matchups, but few pitches are exposed to these changes, and their effects on plate-appearance outcomes are precisely estimated and close to zero. Pitchers re-optimized quickly by throwing higher, with left-handers catching up to an existing trend, whereas we find no evidence that batters adjusted. The results suggest that the incidence of replacing human judgment with a rule depends on its geometry and on exposure.

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