Quem ganha quando o Umpire é uma máquina? evidências do Sistema Automatizado de Golpe de Bola (ABS) / Who Gains When the Umpire Is a Machine? Evidence from the Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS) (2026) (Portuguese)

Em 2024, a Organização de Baseball da Coreia tornou-se a primeira liga de topo a substituir o julgamento da bola por um sistema automatizado. Usando mais de um milhão de pits de 2021 a 2026, separamos a mudança para a remoção da discrição humana e a imposição de uma nova geometria da zona. A máquina eliminou as chamadas dependentes da contagem, o valor do enquadramento do catcher e uma pequena vantagem para os batedores de estrelas, aluguéis que valem apenas algumas corridas por temporada de jogador. Porque as máquinas dimensionam a zona com a altura e tratam cada jogo da mesma forma, redistribuiu as baterias para baterias altas e em todas as partidas, mas poucos pits são expostos a essas mudanças, e seus efeitos sobre os resultados da aparência

Abstract

In 2024 the Korea Baseball Organization became the first top-tier league to replace the home-plate umpires ball-strike judgment with an automated system. Using over a million pitches from 2021 to 2026, we separate the change into the removal of human discretion and the imposition of a new zone geometry. The machine eliminated count-dependent calls, the value of catcher framing and a small advantage for star batters, rents worth only a few runs per player-season. Because the machines zone scales with height and treats every matchup alike, it redistributed strikes toward tall batters and across matchups, but few pitches are exposed to these changes, and their effects on plate-appearance outcomes are precisely estimated and close to zero. Pitchers re-optimized quickly by throwing higher, with left-handers catching up to an existing trend, whereas we find no evidence that batters adjusted. The results suggest that the incidence of replacing human judgment with a rule depends on its geometry and on exposure.

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