Thierno Thioune, Babacar Mbaye Ndiaye · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.28344 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF
Un mecanismo relacionado (arXiv:2610.06967) ha desarrollado un marco de optimización estocástico en el que el rendimiento del fútbol combina el PIB/potencial basado en la población con un proceso de rendimiento medio-reversible latente. El marco se ha aplicado a una sección transversal de los 24 equipos nacionales que participan en AFCON 2025. Este documento aplica la misma metodología a la Copa Mundial de la FIFA de 2026 de 48 equipos, extendiendo el análisis más allá de África sin modificar el modelo subyacente. Usando el PIB, datos de clasificación de la población, datos de clasificación de la FIFA y resultados de torneos completos, evalúa el marco contra una muestra global que abarca a todas las seis confederaciones. En primer lugar, surgen dos hallazgos. En primer lugar, el PIB de los Estados Unidos y
Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.
A related paper (arXiv:2610.06967) developed a stochastic optimization framework in which football performance combines GDP/population-based potential with a latent mean-reverting efficiency process. The framework was applied to a cross-section of the 24 national teams participating in AFCON 2025. This paper applies the same methodology to the full 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup, extending the analysis beyond Africa without modifying the underlying model. Using GDP, population, FIFA ranking data, and complete tournament outcomes, it evaluates the framework against a global sample spanning all six confederations. Two findings emerge. First, GDP and population explain only 9 percent of single-tournament performance variance, compared with 33 percent for FIFA points. This gap is consistent with the model's distinction between systematic performance and match-specific idiosyncratic shocks. Second, using the less noisy FIFA-points measure, the African pattern persists globally: Morocco, Senegal, Argentina, Croatia, Portugal, and Uruguay emerge as leading GDP-relative over-performers. Conversely, several major economies, including the United States, Germany, Japan, and South Korea, underperform their GDP-implied potential. As in the related paper, we interpret the residual as a symmetric, non-structurally identified conditional performance residual, rather than an SFA-consistent efficiency estimate. We also quantify the extent to which its cross-country variance mechanically reflects the underlying performance measure. The GDP-rank/simulated-performance-rank correlation is robust to the choice of the model's unidentified dynamic parameters across a wide grid.
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Topics: Football, Ranking (information retrieval), Econometrics, Sample (material), Tournament, Population
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