Economic resources, sporting efficiency and uncertainty: a global test on the 2026 FIFA world cup

Thierno Thioune, Babacar Mbaye Ndiaye · 2026 · arXiv

DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2610.28344 · open-access PDF

Abstract

A related paper (arXiv:2610.06967) developed a stochastic optimization framework in which football performance combines GDP/population-based potential with a latent mean-reverting efficiency process. The framework was applied to a cross-section of the 24 national teams participating in AFCON 2025. This paper applies the same methodology to the full 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup, extending the analysis beyond Africa without modifying the underlying model. Using GDP, population, FIFA ranking data, and complete tournament outcomes, it evaluates the framework against a global sample spanning all six

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