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Long Term Pediatric Vaccine Tender Scheduling with Quantity Discounts

Nicholas Uhorchak, Rubén A. Proaño, Sandra D. Ekşioğlu, Burak Ekşioğlu · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.19045 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF

Japanese

低所得国と中所得国(LICs and LMICs)のためのHPのガイドブックワクチンは、異質なワクチン市場で長期的な連携を必要とし、利害関係者へのアクセスの目標と不確実な需要を競い合うが、現在、一連の独立した更新として入札が予定されている。我々は、低所得国と中所得国(LICs and LMICs)の枠組みを拡張し、柔軟な長さと全単位量割引で多年にわたる入札をスケジュールし、三つの目標を比較する:バランスのとれた連携型モデル(UG)、失われた用量(SB)を最小限に抑える社会的利益モデル、および生産者利益を最大限

Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.

Abstract

Pediatric vaccine procurement for low- and lower-middle-income countries (LICs and LMICs) requires long-term coordination across heterogeneous vaccine markets, competing stakeholder objectives, and uncertain demand, yet tenders are currently scheduled as a series of independent renewals. We extend the Hypothetically Coordinated Vaccine Market (HCVM) framework to schedule multi-year tenders with flexible lengths and all-unit quantity discounts, and compare three objectives: a balanced coordinatingentity model (UG), a social-benefit model that minimizes missed doses (SB), and a producer profit-maximizing model (MP). Using UNICEF ten-year demand forecasts and 30 demand replications across six discount scenarios, we find that the procurement objective, not demand variability, drives cost-to-tender and schedule complexity. Quantity discounts favor large producers, concentrating the market and increasing supply chain vulnerability. Discount effectiveness depends on market maturity rather than valency: pentavalent and hexavalent vaccines are already near their price floor, and among monovalent vaccines only rotavirus responds to discounts, whereas HPV and PCV remain too expensive to compete. Removing pentavalent and hexavalent vaccines from the procurement pool sharply increases missed doses. These results give planners practical guidance on objective selection, discount design, and protecting access to combination vaccines.

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Topics: Call for bids, Procurement, Bidding, Schedule, Business, Reservation

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