Newest papers

Long Term Pediatric Vaccine Tender Scheduling with Quantity Discounts

Nicholas Uhorchak, Rubén A. Proaño, Sandra D. Ekşioğlu, Burak Ekşioğlu · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.19045 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF

Chinese

针对低收入和中等收入国家(LICs 和 LMICs)的儿童疫苗投标要求在异质疫苗市场进行长期协调,竞争利益相关者目标和不确定的需求,但报价目前计划作为一系列独立更新。我们扩展了假设协调疫苗市场(HCVM)框架,以计划多年的报价,具有灵活的长度和全单位数量折扣,并比较三个目标:均衡协调实体模型(UG),在实际上减少错过剂量(SB)的社会效益模型,以及生产者最大化利润模型(MP)。使用联合国儿童基金会(UNICEF)为期十年的需求报价和30次虚假需求复制,在六个折扣场景中,他发现采购的客观性,而不是需求的变化,驱动成本到需求和

Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.

Abstract

Pediatric vaccine procurement for low- and lower-middle-income countries (LICs and LMICs) requires long-term coordination across heterogeneous vaccine markets, competing stakeholder objectives, and uncertain demand, yet tenders are currently scheduled as a series of independent renewals. We extend the Hypothetically Coordinated Vaccine Market (HCVM) framework to schedule multi-year tenders with flexible lengths and all-unit quantity discounts, and compare three objectives: a balanced coordinatingentity model (UG), a social-benefit model that minimizes missed doses (SB), and a producer profit-maximizing model (MP). Using UNICEF ten-year demand forecasts and 30 demand replications across six discount scenarios, we find that the procurement objective, not demand variability, drives cost-to-tender and schedule complexity. Quantity discounts favor large producers, concentrating the market and increasing supply chain vulnerability. Discount effectiveness depends on market maturity rather than valency: pentavalent and hexavalent vaccines are already near their price floor, and among monovalent vaccines only rotavirus responds to discounts, whereas HPV and PCV remain too expensive to compete. Removing pentavalent and hexavalent vaccines from the procurement pool sharply increases missed doses. These results give planners practical guidance on objective selection, discount design, and protecting access to combination vaccines.

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Topics: Call for bids, Procurement, Bidding, Schedule, Business, Reservation

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