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Long Term Pediatric Vaccine Tender Scheduling with Quantity Discounts

Nicholas Uhorchak, Rubén A. Proaño, Sandra D. Ekşioğlu, Burak Ekşioğlu · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.19045 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF

Korean

낮고 중소 소득 국가(LICs and LMICs)에 대한 HP 가이드 빈 백신 공급은 다양한 백신 시장에 걸쳐 장기적 조정, 경쟁력있는 이해 관계자 목표 및 불확실한 수요를 요구하지만, 현재는 실패 복용량 (SB)을 최소화하는 독립적 인 혜택 모델 (UG), 그리고 생산자 수익을 극대화하는 모델 (MP)의 시리즈로 경매가 예정되어 있습니다. 유니세프의 10 년 수요와 6 개의 할인 시나리오에 걸쳐 유연한 양 복용량 할인과 30 년 수요 복제를 사용하여 세 가지 목표를 비교하고, 우리는 공급의 객관성, 수요가 변동성이 아닌, 비용-테이너-비용 및 예산 복잡성에 영향을 미치는 비용

Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.

Abstract

Pediatric vaccine procurement for low- and lower-middle-income countries (LICs and LMICs) requires long-term coordination across heterogeneous vaccine markets, competing stakeholder objectives, and uncertain demand, yet tenders are currently scheduled as a series of independent renewals. We extend the Hypothetically Coordinated Vaccine Market (HCVM) framework to schedule multi-year tenders with flexible lengths and all-unit quantity discounts, and compare three objectives: a balanced coordinatingentity model (UG), a social-benefit model that minimizes missed doses (SB), and a producer profit-maximizing model (MP). Using UNICEF ten-year demand forecasts and 30 demand replications across six discount scenarios, we find that the procurement objective, not demand variability, drives cost-to-tender and schedule complexity. Quantity discounts favor large producers, concentrating the market and increasing supply chain vulnerability. Discount effectiveness depends on market maturity rather than valency: pentavalent and hexavalent vaccines are already near their price floor, and among monovalent vaccines only rotavirus responds to discounts, whereas HPV and PCV remain too expensive to compete. Removing pentavalent and hexavalent vaccines from the procurement pool sharply increases missed doses. These results give planners practical guidance on objective selection, discount design, and protecting access to combination vaccines.

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Topics: Call for bids, Procurement, Bidding, Schedule, Business, Reservation

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