Backtracking Direct, Indirect and Total Effects

Jose M. Peña · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.28910 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF

Arabic

يتم تحديد التأثيرات المباشرة والمباشرة الطبيعية من خلال التفكير المباشر بين العالم. نحن نقدم بناء بديل على التأثيرات المباشرة. بدلاً من التدخل على العلاج أو المتدخل، نحن نستخدم توزيعًا مستمرًا من التفكير المباشر لتصنيع حالة خارجية بديلة تلبية ضغوط علاج المتدخل المطلوب. وهذا يؤدي إلى التأثيرات المباشرة والمباشرة، فضلاً عن التأثيرات المباشرة.

Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.

Abstract

Natural direct and indirect effects are defined through cross-world interventional counterfactuals. We propose an alternative construction based on backtracking counterfactuals. Rather than intervening on the treatment or mediator, we use a backtracking conditional distribution to construct an alternative exogenous state satisfying a desired treatment-mediator constraint. This yields the backtracking direct and indirect effects, and also the backtracking total effect. Likewise, we adapt the population intervention effects.

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Topics: Backtracking, Construct (python library), Population, Mathematics, Mathematical optimization, Computer science

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