Jose M. Peña · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.28910 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF
Efek langsung dan tidak langsung alami didefinisikan melalui kontrafaktual intervensi lintas dunia. Kami mengusulkan konstruksi alternatif berdasarkan kontrafaktual backlink. Alih-alih mengintervensi pada perawatan atau mediator, kami menggunakan distribusi kondisional backlink untuk membangun keadaan eksogen alternatif yang memenuhi pembatasan pengobatan-mediator yang diinginkan. Ini menghasilkan efek backlink langsung dan tidak langsung, dan juga efek backlink total. Demikian pula, kami menyesuaikan efek intervensi populasi.
Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.
Natural direct and indirect effects are defined through cross-world interventional counterfactuals. We propose an alternative construction based on backtracking counterfactuals. Rather than intervening on the treatment or mediator, we use a backtracking conditional distribution to construct an alternative exogenous state satisfying a desired treatment-mediator constraint. This yields the backtracking direct and indirect effects, and also the backtracking total effect. Likewise, we adapt the population intervention effects.
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Topics: Backtracking, Construct (python library), Population, Mathematics, Mathematical optimization, Computer science
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