Jose M. Peña · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.28910 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF
Os efeitos directos e indirectos naturais são definidos por meio de contrafeitos de intervenção transversal. Proponemos uma construção alternativa baseada em contrafeitos de retrocesso. Em vez de intervir no tratamento ou mediador, usamos uma distribuição condicional de retrocesso para construir um estado exógeno alternativo que satisfaça uma restrição de tratamento-mediador desejada. Isto produz os efeitos directos e indirectos de retrocesso, bem como o efeito total de retrocesso.
Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.
Natural direct and indirect effects are defined through cross-world interventional counterfactuals. We propose an alternative construction based on backtracking counterfactuals. Rather than intervening on the treatment or mediator, we use a backtracking conditional distribution to construct an alternative exogenous state satisfying a desired treatment-mediator constraint. This yields the backtracking direct and indirect effects, and also the backtracking total effect. Likewise, we adapt the population intervention effects.
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Topics: Backtracking, Construct (python library), Population, Mathematics, Mathematical optimization, Computer science
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