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Backtracking Direct, Indirect and Total Effects

Jose M. Peña · 2026 · arXiv (Cornell University)

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.28910 · cited by 0 works (OpenAlex) · open-access PDF

Korean

자연적 직접적 및 간접적 효과는 전 세계적인 개입 반사체를 통해 정의됩니다. 우리는 반사체를 기반으로 한 대안 구조를 제안합니다. 치료 또는 중재자에 개입하는 대신, 우리는 반사체 조건적 분배를 사용하여 원하는 치료 중재자 제한을 충족시키는 대안 외인 상태를 구축합니다. 이것은 반사체의 직접적 및 간접적 효과, 그리고 반사체의 총 효과를 제공합니다.

Machine translation (Meta M2M100); the English original follows.

Abstract

Natural direct and indirect effects are defined through cross-world interventional counterfactuals. We propose an alternative construction based on backtracking counterfactuals. Rather than intervening on the treatment or mediator, we use a backtracking conditional distribution to construct an alternative exogenous state satisfying a desired treatment-mediator constraint. This yields the backtracking direct and indirect effects, and also the backtracking total effect. Likewise, we adapt the population intervention effects.

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Topics: Backtracking, Construct (python library), Population, Mathematics, Mathematical optimization, Computer science

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